Rafael Lovato – Science of the Game – Submissions

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All of Rafael Lovato Junior’s matches observed in this tiny sample happened at IBJJF competitions, in his weight class, and between 2009 and 2013. Only recorded procedures, occurrences, and results are shown in the data below (i.e. if no butterfly sweeps occurred, there will not be a representation of that in the sample data). Matches were chosen at random based on available contests on YouTube – chosen using a random generator from a total of 20 accessible IBJJF matches between 2009 and 2013. This is a small sample, but considering the expected number of matches in this time period, it exceeds the percentage required to produce statistically supported trend sampling.
So, what did we discover?
Rafael Lovato Jr. is a story of two methods. When doing our “It’s Science” tests, we’ve discovered that most players have a highly defined game. There are generally a few number of approaches that appear repeatedly. Lovato, on the other hand, both perpetuates and defies that tendency. Rafael Lovato’s guard demonstrated more variation in technique execution than any other player we’ve observed. He effectively used a variety of guards and sweeps. He never stayed with a guard that wasn’t producing favorable results for long before switching to another version. However, when he passed the guard, he used the exact opposite method. In this limited sample, all of his passes came from the half guard, and just two distinct passes were used from the half guard. The second significant distinction between Lovato’s game and others was his disregard for first points. His opponents defended him in more than two-thirds of his matches, and he was frequently not the first to score (he only scored first in 60% of his wins). This had little impact on his outcomes. As our studies have repeatedly demonstrated, most of the time, scoring first closely corresponds with victory (Kron Gracie was the only outlier). Rafael Lovato appears to be on the same path. It will be fascinating to observe how this tendency evolves.

Six of the ten sweeps witnessed came from different places.
In 40% of his victories, he submitted his opponent.
Mount accounted for 100% of his contributions.
In 69% of his bouts, his opponent used guard against him.
Instead of side-control, 57% of his passes resulted in mount.
His matches lasted an average of 8.50 minutes.
In 60% of matches, he scored first.

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